Dunav Stari Banovci 4–0 Car Konstantin

Dunav Stari Banovci

FT

4 – 0

Car Konstantin

10/15/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 10Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci50%

×Draw21%

Car Konstantin29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav Stari BanovciExpected goals in this matchCar Konstantin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.53

Dunav Stari Banovci

2.05

Car Konstantin

1.53

Dunav Stari Banovci creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 42 away

1.75

creates per match

1.19

1.88

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.75

Car Konstantin

1.19

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.88

Car Konstantin

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Car Konstantin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw

71%

Dunav Stari Banovci or Car Konstantin

79%

Draw or Car Konstantin

50%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+

29%

Car Konstantin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals

87%

Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals

61%

Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals

33%

Car Konstantin 1+ goals

78%

Car Konstantin 2+ goals

45%

Car Konstantin 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)

63%

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Car Konstantin away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.75 + Car Konstantin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.05

Car Konstantin attack 1.19 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more

50%

level

21%

Car Konstantin scores more

29%

Dunav Stari Banovci at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dunav Stari Banovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff