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Dunav Stari Banovci vs Budućnost Popovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
FT
0 – 2
Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
8/27/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 3Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci37%
×Draw23%
Budućnost Popovac39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.60
Budućnost Popovac
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.75
Budućnost Popovac
1.40

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.88
Budućnost Popovac
1.45

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par
Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Budućnost Popovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw
61%
Dunav Stari Banovci or Budućnost Popovac
77%
Draw or Budućnost Popovac
63%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
18%
Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
80%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
47%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
22%
Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
81%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
49%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
49%
Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.75 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.60

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
37%
level
23%
Budućnost Popovac scores more
39%

Budućnost Popovac at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Dunav Stari Banovci 0–2 Budućnost Popovac

Budućnost Popovac beat Dunav Stari Banovci 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Dunav in Prahovo.