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Dunav Stari Banovci vs Bratstvo Prigrevica — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
FT
2 – 3
Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
10/25/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 14Stadion Pod Bairom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci30%
×Draw26%
Bratstvo Prigrevica44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.20
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.50

Bratstvo Prigrevica creates 25% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 42 away

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.30
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.05

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.96
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par
Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Bratstvo Prigrevica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw
56%
Dunav Stari Banovci or Bratstvo Prigrevica
74%
Draw or Bratstvo Prigrevica
70%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
13%
Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
70%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
34%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
12%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
78%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
44%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
41%
Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.30 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.05 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
30%
level
26%
Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
44%

Bratstvo Prigrevica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bratstvo Prigrevica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Dunav Stari Banovci 2–3 Bratstvo Prigrevica

Bratstvo Prigrevica beat Dunav Stari Banovci 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Bairom in Stari Banovci.