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Dunav Ruse vs Shumen 2007 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
2 – 1
Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
5/15/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 28Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dunav Ruse59%
×Draw20%
Shumen 200722%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
2.31
Shumen 2007
1.34

Dunav Ruse creates 72% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 36 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
3.08
Shumen 2007
2.06

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
0.62
Shumen 2007
1.53

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Shumen 2007 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
78%
Dunav Ruse or Shumen 2007
80%
Draw or Shumen 2007
41%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
37%
Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
90%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
67%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
40%
Shumen 2007 1+ goals
74%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
39%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
73%
Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 3.08, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 3.08 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.31

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
59%
level
20%
Shumen 2007 scores more
22%

Dunav Ruse at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Dunav Ruse 2–1 Shumen 2007

Dunav Ruse beat Shumen 2007 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.