Dunav Ruse 2–1 Levski Krumovgrad: Result & Stats

Dunav Ruse

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Levski Krumovgrad

4/7/2023

Second League · Round 25Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dunav Ruse45%

×Draw28%

Levski Krumovgrad27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav RuseExpected goals in this matchLevski Krumovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.93

Dunav Ruse

1.31

Levski Krumovgrad

0.93

Dunav Ruse creates 41% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

1.45

creates per match

1.18

0.67

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Dunav Ruse

1.45

Levski Krumovgrad

1.18

allows per match

Dunav Ruse

0.67

Levski Krumovgrad

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw

73%

Dunav Ruse or Levski Krumovgrad

72%

Draw or Levski Krumovgrad

55%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

21%

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

73%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

38%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

14%

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

61%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

24%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

63%

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 69 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.45 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.18 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more

45%

level

28%

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

27%

Dunav Ruse at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff