Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dunav Ruse vs Kubrat — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
CANC
13:00
Kubrat
Kubrat
3/20/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 20Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dunav Ruse86%
×Draw10%
Kubrat5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
3.31
Kubrat
0.68

Dunav Ruse creates 387% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
3.08
Kubrat
0.74

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
0.62
Kubrat
3.54

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Kubrat+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Kubrat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
95%
Dunav Ruse or Kubrat
90%
Draw or Kubrat
14%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
69%
Kubrat wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
96%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
83%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
62%
Kubrat 1+ goals
49%
Kubrat 2+ goals
15%
Kubrat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
95%
Kubrat (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 3.08, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Kubrat away — creates 0.74, concedes 3.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 3.08 + Kubrat defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.31

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
86%
level
10%
Kubrat scores more
5%

Dunav Ruse at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dunav Ruse vs Kubrat — Match Preview

Dunav Ruse face Kubrat on March 20, 2021 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dunav Ruse host Kubrat at Gradski Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.