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Dunav Ruse vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
5/8/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 35Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Dunav Ruse52%
×Draw27%
Dobrudzha21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
1.42
Dobrudzha
0.78

Dunav Ruse creates 82% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 101 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
1.45
Dobrudzha
0.89

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
0.67
Dobrudzha
1.40

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
79%
Dunav Ruse or Dobrudzha
73%
Draw or Dobrudzha
48%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
26%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
76%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
41%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
17%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
54%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
18%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
72%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 69 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.45 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
52%
level
27%
Dobrudzha scores more
21%

Dunav Ruse at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Dunav Ruse 1–1 Dobrudzha

Dunav Ruse and Dobrudzha drew 1-1 in Second League on May 8, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.