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Dunav Ruse vs CSKA Sofia II — Second League 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
12/1/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dunav Ruse45%
×Draw27%
CSKA Sofia II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
1.39
CSKA Sofia II
1.02

Dunav Ruse creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 39 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
1.45
CSKA Sofia II
1.38

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
0.67
CSKA Sofia II
1.33

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

CSKA Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
72%
Dunav Ruse or CSKA Sofia II
73%
Draw or CSKA Sofia II
55%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
22%
CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
75%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
40%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
16%
CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
64%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
27%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
62%
CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 69 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.45 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.38 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
45%
level
27%
CSKA Sofia II scores more
28%

Dunav Ruse at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Ruse vs CSKA Sofia II

Dunav Ruse and CSKA Sofia II drew 1-1 in Second League on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.