Dunav Ruse 2–0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Dunav Ruse

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

3/2/2024

Second League · Round 23Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Dunav Ruse52%

×Draw27%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav RuseExpected goals in this matchChernomorets 1919 Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.80

Dunav Ruse

1.42

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.80

Dunav Ruse creates 77% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 33 away

1.45

creates per match

0.94

0.67

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Dunav Ruse

1.45

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.94

allows per match

Dunav Ruse

0.67

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw

79%

Dunav Ruse or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

73%

Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

48%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

26%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

76%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

41%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

17%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

55%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

19%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

71%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 69 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.45 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 0.94 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more

52%

level

27%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

21%

Dunav Ruse at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Dunav Ruse 2–0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Dunav Ruse beat Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2-0 in Second League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.

Dunav Ruse vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Second League: Dunav Ruse 2–0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas