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Dunav Prahovo vs Župa — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
FT
1 – 1
Župa
Župa
4/10/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 27Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dunav Prahovo59%
×Draw21%
Župa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Prahovo
2.13
Župa
1.18

Dunav Prahovo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.69
Župa
1.26

allows per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.09
Župa
2.58

finishing

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par
Župa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Prahovo ↓

Župa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dunav Prahovo or draw
79%
Dunav Prahovo or Župa
79%
Draw or Župa
41%

Winning margin

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
36%
Župa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
88%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
63%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
35%
Župa 1+ goals
69%
Župa 2+ goals
33%
Župa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
74%
Župa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Prahovo at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Župa away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.69 + Župa defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.13

Župa attack 1.26 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dunav Prahovo scores more
59%
level
21%
Župa scores more
21%

Dunav Prahovo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dunav Prahovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Dunav Prahovo 1–1 Župa

Dunav Prahovo and Župa drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Dunav in Prahovo.