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Dunav Prahovo vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
FT
2 – 0
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
9/27/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 9Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Dunav Prahovo77%
×Draw14%
Moravac Mrštane9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Prahovo
2.93
Moravac Mrštane
0.94

Dunav Prahovo creates 212% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.69
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.09
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Prahovo ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Dunav Prahovo or draw
91%
Dunav Prahovo or Moravac Mrštane
86%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
23%

Winning margin

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
57%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
94%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
78%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
55%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
61%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
24%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
89%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Prahovo at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.69 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.93

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Dunav Prahovo scores more
77%
level
14%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
9%

Dunav Prahovo at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Dunav Prahovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Prahovo vs Moravac Mrštane

Dunav Prahovo beat Moravac Mrštane 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Dunav in Prahovo.