Dunav ot Ruse II 3–0 Sportist G.Toshevo

Dunav ot Ruse II

FT

3 – 0

Sportist G.Toshevo

11/27/2022

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav ot Ruse II66%

×Draw17%

Sportist G.Toshevo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav ot Ruse IIExpected goals in this matchSportist G.Toshevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.30

Dunav ot Ruse II

2.66

Sportist G.Toshevo

1.30

Dunav ot Ruse II creates 105% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 40 away

1.19

creates per match

0.75

1.85

allows per match

4.13

creates per match

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.19

Sportist G.Toshevo

0.75

allows per match

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.85

Sportist G.Toshevo

4.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav ot Ruse II ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Dunav ot Ruse II or draw

83%

Dunav ot Ruse II or Sportist G.Toshevo

83%

Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo

34%

Winning margin

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+

45%

Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals

93%

Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals

74%

Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals

49%

Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals

73%

Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals

37%

Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)

79%

Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav ot Ruse II at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 1.19 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.66

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more

66%

level

17%

Sportist G.Toshevo scores more

17%

Dunav ot Ruse II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dunav ot Ruse II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff