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Dunav Lom vs Yantra Polski Trambesh — Third League - Northwest 2018

Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
CANC
14:00
Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
3/30/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 21Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dunav Lom63%
×Draw20%
Yantra Polski Trambesh17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Lom
2.21
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.05

Dunav Lom creates 110% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 99 away

creates per match

Dunav Lom
2.29
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.40

allows per match

Dunav Lom
0.71
Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.12

finishing

Dunav Lom+0.00on par
Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Lom ↓

Yantra Polski Trambesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dunav Lom or draw
83%
Dunav Lom or Yantra Polski Trambesh
80%
Draw or Yantra Polski Trambesh
37%

Winning margin

Dunav Lom wins by 2+
40%
Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dunav Lom 1+ goals
89%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
65%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
38%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
65%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
28%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
79%
Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Lom at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.12 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Lom attack 2.29 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.21

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 1.40 + Dunav Lom defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dunav Lom scores more
63%
level
20%
Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
17%

Dunav Lom at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dunav Lom host Yantra Polski Trambesh

March 30, 2024: Dunav Lom take on Yantra Polski Trambesh in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dunav Lom host Yantra Polski Trambesh at Gradski Stadion Lom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.