Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dunav Lom vs Vihar Slavyanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
CANC
12:30
Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
3/16/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 19Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dunav Lom54%
×Draw24%
Vihar Slavyanovo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Lom
1.72
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.02

Dunav Lom creates 69% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 95 away

creates per match

Dunav Lom
2.29
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.33

allows per match

Dunav Lom
0.71
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.15

finishing

Dunav Lom+0.00on par
Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Lom ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dunav Lom or draw
78%
Dunav Lom or Vihar Slavyanovo
76%
Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo
46%

Winning margin

Dunav Lom wins by 2+
29%
Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dunav Lom 1+ goals
82%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
51%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
25%
Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
64%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
27%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
71%
Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Lom at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Lom attack 2.29 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.72

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Dunav Lom defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dunav Lom scores more
54%
level
24%
Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
22%

Dunav Lom at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dunav Lom host Vihar Slavyanovo

March 16, 2024: Dunav Lom take on Vihar Slavyanovo in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dunav Lom host Vihar Slavyanovo at Gradski Stadion Lom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.