Dunav Lom 4–0 Drenovets: Result & Stats

Dunav Lom

FT

4 – 0

Drenovets

9/23/2023

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 7Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dunav Lom74%

×Draw16%

Drenovets9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav LomExpected goals in this matchDrenovets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.73

Dunav Lom

2.42

Drenovets

0.73

Dunav Lom creates 232% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 68 away

2.29

creates per match

0.76

0.71

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Dunav Lom

2.29

Drenovets

0.76

allows per match

Dunav Lom

0.71

Drenovets

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Lom+0.00on par

Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Lom ↓

Drenovets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dunav Lom or draw

91%

Dunav Lom or Drenovets

84%

Draw or Drenovets

26%

Winning margin

Dunav Lom wins by 2+

51%

Drenovets wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Dunav Lom 1+ goals

91%

Dunav Lom 2+ goals

69%

Dunav Lom 3+ goals

43%

Drenovets 1+ goals

52%

Drenovets 2+ goals

17%

Drenovets 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dunav Lom (draw refunded)

89%

Drenovets (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Lom at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Lom attack 2.29 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.42

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Dunav Lom defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Dunav Lom scores more

74%

level

16%

Drenovets scores more

9%

Dunav Lom at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff