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Dunav Lom vs Akademik Svishtov — Third League - Northwest 2018

Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
CANC
12:30
Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
3/2/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 17Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dunav Lom61%
×Draw21%
Akademik Svishtov18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Lom
1.98
Akademik Svishtov
0.95

Dunav Lom creates 108% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 104 away

creates per match

Dunav Lom
2.29
Akademik Svishtov
1.19

allows per match

Dunav Lom
0.71
Akademik Svishtov
1.68

finishing

Dunav Lom+0.00on par
Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Lom ↓

Akademik Svishtov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dunav Lom or draw
82%
Dunav Lom or Akademik Svishtov
79%
Draw or Akademik Svishtov
39%

Winning margin

Dunav Lom wins by 2+
37%
Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dunav Lom 1+ goals
86%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
59%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
31%
Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
61%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
25%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
78%
Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Lom at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Akademik Svishtov away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Lom attack 2.29 + Akademik Svishtov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.98

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.19 + Dunav Lom defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dunav Lom scores more
61%
level
21%
Akademik Svishtov scores more
18%

Dunav Lom at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dunav Lom host Akademik Svishtov

March 2, 2024: Dunav Lom take on Akademik Svishtov in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dunav Lom host Akademik Svishtov at Gradski Stadion Lom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.