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Dunaújváros-Pálhalma vs Dunaföldvár — NB III - Southwest 2019

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dunaföldvár
Dunaföldvár
11/26/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 17Dunaújvárosi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma53%
×Draw22%
Dunaföldvár25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
1.99
Dunaföldvár
1.31

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
0.87
Dunaföldvár
1.23

allows per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
1.40
Dunaföldvár
3.10

finishing

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par
Dunaföldvár+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma ↓

Dunaföldvár →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or draw
75%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or Dunaföldvár
78%
Draw or Dunaföldvár
47%

Winning margin

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+
31%
Dunaföldvár wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals
86%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals
59%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals
32%
Dunaföldvár 1+ goals
73%
Dunaföldvár 2+ goals
38%
Dunaföldvár 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)
68%
Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Dunaföldvár away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 0.87 + Dunaföldvár defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 1.99

Dunaföldvár attack 1.23 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more
53%
level
22%
Dunaföldvár scores more
25%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dunaújváros-Pálhalma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunaújváros-Pálhalma vs Dunaföldvár

Dunaföldvár beat Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Dunaújvárosi Stadion in Dunaújváros.