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Dunaújváros-Pálhalma vs Bánk — NB III - Northwest 2019

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Bánk
Bánk
4/16/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 32Dunaújvárosi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma60%
×Draw20%
Bánk20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
2.27
Bánk
1.23

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma creates 85% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
1.73
Bánk
1.06

allows per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
1.41
Bánk
2.82

finishing

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par
Bánk+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma ↓

Bánk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or draw
80%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or Bánk
80%
Draw or Bánk
40%

Winning margin

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+
38%
Bánk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals
90%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals
66%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals
39%
Bánk 1+ goals
71%
Bánk 2+ goals
35%
Bánk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)
75%
Bánk (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Bánk away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 1.73 + Bánk defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.27

Bánk attack 1.06 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more
60%
level
20%
Bánk scores more
20%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dunaújváros-Pálhalma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3–4 Bánk

Bánk beat Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 4-3 in NB III - Northwest on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Dunaújvárosi Stadion in Dunaújváros.