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Dunarea Calarasi vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
9/11/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 6Stadionul Central Ion Comşa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi54%
×Draw20%
Unirea Constanța25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunarea Calarasi
2.24
Unirea Constanța
1.48

Dunarea Calarasi creates 51% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 25 away

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi
1.24
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi
1.89
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw
75%
Dunarea Calarasi or Unirea Constanța
80%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
46%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
33%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
89%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
65%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
38%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
77%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
43%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
68%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.24 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.24

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more
54%
level
20%
Unirea Constanța scores more
25%

Dunarea Calarasi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dunarea Calarasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dunarea Calarasi 1–1 Unirea Constanța

Dunarea Calarasi and Unirea Constanța drew 1-1 in Liga II on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Central Ion Comşa in Călăraşi.