Dunarea Calarasi 3–2 Rapid: Result & Stats

Dunarea Calarasi

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rapid

5/7/2021

Liga II · Promotion Round - 7Stadionul Central Ion Comşa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi29%

×Draw24%

Rapid46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunarea CalarasiExpected goals in this matchRapid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.63

Dunarea Calarasi

1.24

Rapid

1.63

Rapid creates 31% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

1.24

creates per match

1.38

1.89

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.24

Rapid

1.38

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.89

Rapid

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

Rapid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw

54%

Dunarea Calarasi or Rapid

76%

Draw or Rapid

71%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

12%

Rapid wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

71%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

35%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

13%

Rapid 1+ goals

80%

Rapid 2+ goals

48%

Rapid 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

39%

Rapid (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.24 + Rapid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Rapid attack 1.38 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

29%

level

24%

Rapid scores more

46%

Rapid at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff