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Dunarea Calarasi vs Pandurii TG JIU — Liga II 2018

Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
9/28/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 9Stadionul Central Ion Comşa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi46%
×Draw23%
Pandurii TG JIU31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunarea Calarasi
1.79
Pandurii TG JIU
1.42

Dunarea Calarasi creates 26% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 44 away

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi
1.24
Pandurii TG JIU
0.95

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi
1.89
Pandurii TG JIU
2.34

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par
Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw
69%
Dunarea Calarasi or Pandurii TG JIU
77%
Draw or Pandurii TG JIU
54%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
25%
Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
83%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
53%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
26%
Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
76%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
41%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
60%
Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.24 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.79

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more
46%
level
23%
Pandurii TG JIU scores more
31%

Dunarea Calarasi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dunarea Calarasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dunarea Calarasi 4–0 Pandurii TG JIU

Dunarea Calarasi beat Pandurii TG JIU 4-0 in Liga II on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Central Ion Comşa in Călăraşi.