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Dunarea Calarasi vs Înainte Modelu — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Înainte Modelu
Înainte Modelu
12/1/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 15Complex Municipal Dunărea Teren 1 Ion Comșa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi56%
×Draw22%
Înainte Modelu21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunarea Calarasi
1.88
Înainte Modelu
1.07

Dunarea Calarasi creates 76% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi
1.90
Înainte Modelu
1.08

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi
1.06
Înainte Modelu
1.85

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par
Înainte Modelu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

Înainte Modelu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw
79%
Dunarea Calarasi or Înainte Modelu
78%
Draw or Înainte Modelu
44%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
32%
Înainte Modelu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
85%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
56%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
29%
Înainte Modelu 1+ goals
66%
Înainte Modelu 2+ goals
29%
Înainte Modelu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
72%
Înainte Modelu (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Înainte Modelu away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.85 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.90 + Înainte Modelu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.88

Înainte Modelu attack 1.08 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more
56%
level
22%
Înainte Modelu scores more
21%

Dunarea Calarasi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dunarea Calarasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dunarea Calarasi 5 – 1 Înainte Modelu

Dunarea Calarasi beat Înainte Modelu 5-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Complex Municipal Dunărea Teren 1 Ion Comșa in Călăraşi.