Dunarea Calarasi 0–1 GAZ Metan Medias

Dunarea Calarasi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

GAZ Metan Medias

Yazalde 87'

5/26/2019

Liga I · Relegation Round - 13Stadionul Ion Comsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi41%

×Draw29%

GAZ Metan Medias31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunarea CalarasiExpected goals in this matchGAZ Metan Medias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.00

Dunarea Calarasi

1.20

GAZ Metan Medias

1.00

Dunarea Calarasi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 76 away

0.81

creates per match

0.89

1.10

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi

0.81

GAZ Metan Medias

0.89

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.10

GAZ Metan Medias

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw

69%

Dunarea Calarasi or GAZ Metan Medias

71%

Draw or GAZ Metan Medias

59%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

17%

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

70%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

34%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

12%

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

63%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

26%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

57%

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 0.81 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.20

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

41%

level

29%

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

31%

Dunarea Calarasi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dunarea Calarasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Mario Rondon

21'

Andre Micael

27'

A. Bourceanu← G. Honciu

33'

Alexandru Bourceanu

46'

S. Ben Djemia← A. Souda

54'

Gabriel Iancu

58'

Najib Ammari

59'

Antoni Ivanov

60'

S. Mailat← Ely Fernandes

73'

Sorin Marian Buşu

77'

Gabriel Iancu

77'

Gabriel Iancu

78'

Yazalde← D. Olaru

83'

S. Filip← G. Enache

87'

Yazalde

89'

B. Diallo← M. Rondón

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DunareaGAZ

Overview

49%Possession51%

2Total Shots15

3Corners4

19Fouls17

Shots

2Total Shots15

0On Target5

2Off Target10

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards–

2Offsides3