Dunarea Calarasi 3–0 Comuna Recea: Result & Stats

Dunarea Calarasi

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Comuna Recea

9/5/2020

Liga II · Round 2Stadionul Central Ion Comşa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi43%

×Draw24%

Comuna Recea33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunarea CalarasiExpected goals in this matchComuna Recea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.41

Dunarea Calarasi

1.62

Comuna Recea

1.41

Dunarea Calarasi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

1.24

creates per match

0.92

1.89

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.24

Comuna Recea

0.92

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.89

Comuna Recea

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Comuna Recea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

Comuna Recea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw

67%

Dunarea Calarasi or Comuna Recea

76%

Draw or Comuna Recea

57%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

22%

Comuna Recea wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

80%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

48%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

22%

Comuna Recea 1+ goals

76%

Comuna Recea 2+ goals

41%

Comuna Recea 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

56%

Comuna Recea (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Comuna Recea away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.24 + Comuna Recea defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Comuna Recea attack 0.92 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

43%

level

24%

Comuna Recea scores more

33%

Dunarea Calarasi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dunarea Calarasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff