Dunarea Calarasi 3–2 Aerostar Bacau: Result & Stats

Dunarea Calarasi

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Aerostar Bacau

10/3/2020

Liga II · Round 6Stadionul Central Ion Comşa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi45%

×Draw23%

Aerostar Bacau32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunarea CalarasiExpected goals in this matchAerostar Bacau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.43

Dunarea Calarasi

1.73

Aerostar Bacau

1.43

Dunarea Calarasi creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 31 away

1.24

creates per match

0.97

1.89

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.24

Aerostar Bacau

0.97

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.89

Aerostar Bacau

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

Aerostar Bacau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw

68%

Dunarea Calarasi or Aerostar Bacau

77%

Draw or Aerostar Bacau

55%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

24%

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

82%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

52%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

25%

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals

76%

Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals

42%

Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

58%

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.24 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.73

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

45%

level

23%

Aerostar Bacau scores more

32%

Dunarea Calarasi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dunarea Calarasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff