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Dunamis vs El Nacional — Copa Ecuador 2022

Dunamis
Dunamis
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
El Nacional
El Nacionaladvanced
4/21/2026Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dunamis9%
×Draw15%
El Nacional76%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunamis
0.72
El Nacional
2.50

El Nacional creates 247% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dunamis
0.33
El Nacional
2.00

allows per match

Dunamis
3.00
El Nacional
1.11

finishing

Dunamis+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunamis ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dunamis or draw
24%
Dunamis or El Nacional
85%
Draw or El Nacional
91%

Winning margin

Dunamis wins by 2+
2%
El Nacional wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Dunamis 1+ goals
51%
Dunamis 2+ goals
16%
Dunamis 3+ goals
4%
El Nacional 1+ goals
92%
El Nacional 2+ goals
71%
El Nacional 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Dunamis (draw refunded)
10%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunamis at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

El Nacional away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunamis attack 0.33 + El Nacional defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.72

El Nacional attack 2.00 + Dunamis defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Dunamis scores more
9%
level
15%
El Nacional scores more
76%

El Nacional at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "El Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunamis vs El Nacional

El Nacional beat Dunamis 5-1 in Copa Ecuador on April 21, 2026.