Dunajska Streda 1–0 Velež: Result & Stats

Dunajska Streda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Velež

G. Gagua 59' (pen)

7/23/2026

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundMOL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dunajska Streda46%

×Draw28%

Velež26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunajska StredaExpected goals in this matchVelež

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.92

Dunajska Streda

1.32

Velež

0.92

Dunajska Streda creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.14

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Dunajska Streda

1.14

Velež

0.83

allows per match

Dunajska Streda

1.00

Velež

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunajska Streda+0.00on par

Velež+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunajska Streda ↓

Velež →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dunajska Streda or draw

74%

Dunajska Streda or Velež

72%

Draw or Velež

54%

Winning margin

Dunajska Streda wins by 2+

21%

Velež wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dunajska Streda 1+ goals

73%

Dunajska Streda 2+ goals

38%

Dunajska Streda 3+ goals

15%

Velež 1+ goals

60%

Velež 2+ goals

23%

Velež 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dunajska Streda (draw refunded)

64%

Velež (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunajska Streda at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Velež away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunajska Streda attack 1.14 + Velež defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Velež attack 0.83 + Dunajska Streda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dunajska Streda scores more

46%

level

28%

Velež scores more

26%

Dunajska Streda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dunajska Streda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

R. Abdullah

43'

A. Gueye

59'

G. GaguaPenalty

67'

67'

77'

78'

82'

85'

86'

Dunajska4-4-2

Velež3-4-3

10

9

80

11

29

6

7

18

8

13

1

31

18

81

26

22

10

17

44

▼

Ouro

7

▼

Kabić

11

▼

Gueye

29

⚽

Gagua

67'▲M. Trusa←▼A. Gueye

67'▲F. Diongue←▼S. Ouro

78'▲A. Gruber←▼U. Kabic

86'▲A. Sylla←▼A. Ramadan

Dunajska Streda substitutes

27Diongue46Trusa9Gruber19Sylla1Filipe90Németh33Kacharaba48Majer36Udvaros38Jenčuš14Corr40Csóka

Manager: Ibro Rahimic

77'▲M. Besic←▼D. Salcin

Velež substitutes

83Bešić22Mataradžić55Bajrić17Shhade20Halilović38Puce21Pajević

Match Recap: Dunajska Streda vs Velež

Dunajska Streda beat Velež 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 23, 2026.

Goals: G. Gagua (59' pen).

The match was played at MOL Arena in Dunajska Streda.

Dunajska Streda vs Velež — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dunajska Streda vs Velež