Dunajska Streda 1–0 TSV Hartberg: Result & Stats

Dunajska Streda

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

TSV Hartberg

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Umelá Tráva DAC Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dunajska Streda40%

×Draw22%

TSV Hartberg38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunajska StredaExpected goals in this matchTSV Hartberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.80

Dunajska Streda

1.84

TSV Hartberg

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.69

creates per match

2.22

1.38

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dunajska Streda

1.69

TSV Hartberg

2.22

allows per match

Dunajska Streda

1.38

TSV Hartberg

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunajska Streda+0.00on par

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunajska Streda ↓

TSV Hartberg →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Dunajska Streda or draw

62%

Dunajska Streda or TSV Hartberg

78%

Draw or TSV Hartberg

60%

Winning margin

Dunajska Streda wins by 2+

21%

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Dunajska Streda 1+ goals

84%

Dunajska Streda 2+ goals

55%

Dunajska Streda 3+ goals

28%

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

83%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

54%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Dunajska Streda (draw refunded)

51%

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dunajska Streda at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dunajska Streda attack 1.69 + TSV Hartberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

TSV Hartberg attack 2.22 + Dunajska Streda defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dunajska Streda scores more

40%

level

22%

TSV Hartberg scores more

38%

Dunajska Streda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dunajska Streda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff