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Dunaföldvár vs PTE-PEAC — NB III - Southwest 2019

Dunaföldvár
Dunaföldvár
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
PTE-PEAC
PTE-PEAC
9/22/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 8Dunaföldvár FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunaföldvár46%
×Draw23%
PTE-PEAC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunaföldvár
1.82
PTE-PEAC
1.45

Dunaföldvár creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dunaföldvár
1.53
PTE-PEAC
1.02

allows per match

Dunaföldvár
1.87
PTE-PEAC
2.11

finishing

Dunaföldvár+0.00on par
PTE-PEAC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaföldvár ↓

PTE-PEAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dunaföldvár or draw
69%
Dunaföldvár or PTE-PEAC
77%
Draw or PTE-PEAC
54%

Winning margin

Dunaföldvár wins by 2+
25%
PTE-PEAC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dunaföldvár 1+ goals
84%
Dunaföldvár 2+ goals
54%
Dunaföldvár 3+ goals
27%
PTE-PEAC 1+ goals
77%
PTE-PEAC 2+ goals
42%
PTE-PEAC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)
60%
PTE-PEAC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaföldvár at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

PTE-PEAC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaföldvár attack 1.53 + PTE-PEAC defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.82

PTE-PEAC attack 1.02 + Dunaföldvár defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dunaföldvár scores more
46%
level
23%
PTE-PEAC scores more
31%

Dunaföldvár at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dunaföldvár will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunaföldvár vs PTE-PEAC

PTE-PEAC beat Dunaföldvár 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Dunaföldvár FC Sporttelep in Dunaföldvár.