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Dunaföldvár vs Gárdony — NB III - Southwest 2019

Dunaföldvár
Dunaföldvár
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Gárdony
Gárdony
5/11/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 28Dunaföldvár FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunaföldvár50%
×Draw22%
Gárdony27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunaföldvár
1.94
Gárdony
1.38

Dunaföldvár creates 41% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 68 away

creates per match

Dunaföldvár
1.53
Gárdony
0.88

allows per match

Dunaföldvár
1.87
Gárdony
2.35

finishing

Dunaföldvár+0.00on par
Gárdony+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaföldvár ↓

Gárdony →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dunaföldvár or draw
73%
Dunaföldvár or Gárdony
78%
Draw or Gárdony
50%

Winning margin

Dunaföldvár wins by 2+
29%
Gárdony wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dunaföldvár 1+ goals
86%
Dunaföldvár 2+ goals
58%
Dunaföldvár 3+ goals
30%
Gárdony 1+ goals
75%
Gárdony 2+ goals
40%
Gárdony 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)
65%
Gárdony (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaföldvár at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Gárdony away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaföldvár attack 1.53 + Gárdony defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

Gárdony attack 0.88 + Dunaföldvár defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dunaföldvár scores more
50%
level
22%
Gárdony scores more
27%

Dunaföldvár at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dunaföldvár will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Dunaföldvár 1–3 Gárdony

Gárdony beat Dunaföldvár 3-1 in NB III - Southwest on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Dunaföldvár FC Sporttelep in Dunaföldvár.