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Dunaföldvár vs Főnix — NB III - Southwest 2019

Dunaföldvár
Dunaföldvár
FT
3 – 4
Főnix
Főnix
8/7/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 2Dunaföldvár FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunaföldvár57%
×Draw19%
Főnix24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunaföldvár
2.56
Főnix
1.64

Dunaföldvár creates 56% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dunaföldvár
1.53
Főnix
1.40

allows per match

Dunaföldvár
1.87
Főnix
3.60

finishing

Dunaföldvár+0.00on par
Főnix+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaföldvár ↓

Főnix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Dunaföldvár or draw
76%
Dunaföldvár or Főnix
81%
Draw or Főnix
43%

Winning margin

Dunaföldvár wins by 2+
37%
Főnix wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dunaföldvár 1+ goals
92%
Dunaföldvár 2+ goals
72%
Dunaföldvár 3+ goals
46%
Főnix 1+ goals
81%
Főnix 2+ goals
49%
Főnix 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)
70%
Főnix (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaföldvár at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Főnix away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaföldvár attack 1.53 + Főnix defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.56

Főnix attack 1.40 + Dunaföldvár defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dunaföldvár scores more
57%
level
19%
Főnix scores more
24%

Dunaföldvár at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dunaföldvár will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Dunaföldvár 3–4 Főnix

Főnix beat Dunaföldvár 4-3 in NB III - Southwest on August 7, 2024.

The match was played at Dunaföldvár FC Sporttelep in Dunaföldvár.