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Dunaföldvár vs Ferencváros II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Dunaföldvár
Dunaföldvár
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferencváros II
Ferencváros II
10/29/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 13Dunaföldvár FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunaföldvár32%
×Draw23%
Ferencváros II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunaföldvár
1.50
Ferencváros II
1.81

Ferencváros II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dunaföldvár
1.53
Ferencváros II
1.76

allows per match

Dunaföldvár
1.87
Ferencváros II
1.47

finishing

Dunaföldvár+0.00on par
Ferencváros II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaföldvár ↓

Ferencváros II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dunaföldvár or draw
55%
Dunaföldvár or Ferencváros II
77%
Draw or Ferencváros II
68%

Winning margin

Dunaföldvár wins by 2+
15%
Ferencváros II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dunaföldvár 1+ goals
78%
Dunaföldvár 2+ goals
44%
Dunaföldvár 3+ goals
19%
Ferencváros II 1+ goals
84%
Ferencváros II 2+ goals
54%
Ferencváros II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)
42%
Ferencváros II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaföldvár at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Ferencváros II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaföldvár attack 1.53 + Ferencváros II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ferencváros II attack 1.76 + Dunaföldvár defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dunaföldvár scores more
32%
level
23%
Ferencváros II scores more
45%

Ferencváros II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Dunaföldvár 1–0 Ferencváros II

Dunaföldvár beat Ferencváros II 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Dunaföldvár FC Sporttelep in Dunaföldvár.