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Dumiense vs Vilaverdense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Dumiense
Dumiense
FT
2 – 3
Vilaverdense
Vilaverdense
9/8/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Celestino Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dumiense48%
×Draw21%
Vilaverdense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumiense
2.20
Vilaverdense
1.77

Dumiense creates 24% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dumiense
2.25
Vilaverdense
2.29

allows per match

Dumiense
1.25
Vilaverdense
2.14

finishing

Dumiense+0.00on par
Vilaverdense+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumiense ↓

Vilaverdense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Dumiense or draw
68%
Dumiense or Vilaverdense
79%
Draw or Vilaverdense
52%

Winning margin

Dumiense wins by 2+
28%
Vilaverdense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dumiense 1+ goals
89%
Dumiense 2+ goals
64%
Dumiense 3+ goals
37%
Vilaverdense 1+ goals
83%
Vilaverdense 2+ goals
53%
Vilaverdense 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dumiense (draw refunded)
60%
Vilaverdense (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumiense at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Vilaverdense away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumiense attack 2.25 + Vilaverdense defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.20

Vilaverdense attack 2.29 + Dumiense defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dumiense scores more
48%
level
21%
Vilaverdense scores more
32%

Dumiense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dumiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Dumiense 2–3 Vilaverdense

Vilaverdense beat Dumiense 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Celestino Lobo in Dume.