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Dumiense vs AVS — Taça de Portugal 2018

Dumiense
Dumiense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AVS
AVS
10/22/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundCampo Celestino Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dumiense33%
×Draw23%
AVS44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumiense
1.46
AVS
1.71

AVS creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dumiense
2.25
AVS
2.17

allows per match

Dumiense
1.25
AVS
0.67

finishing

Dumiense+0.00on par
AVS+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumiense ↓

AVS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dumiense or draw
56%
Dumiense or AVS
77%
Draw or AVS
67%

Winning margin

Dumiense wins by 2+
15%
AVS wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dumiense 1+ goals
77%
Dumiense 2+ goals
43%
Dumiense 3+ goals
18%
AVS 1+ goals
82%
AVS 2+ goals
51%
AVS 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dumiense (draw refunded)
43%
AVS (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumiense at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

AVS away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumiense attack 2.25 + AVS defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

AVS attack 2.17 + Dumiense defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dumiense scores more
33%
level
23%
AVS scores more
44%

AVS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Dumiense 1–0 AVS

Dumiense beat AVS 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Celestino Lobo in Dume.