Dumbrăviţa 1–2 U Craiova 1948: Result & Stats

Dumbrăviţa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

U Craiova 1948

N. Modan 64'

J. Ibrahim 90+2'

V. Pop 11'

8/17/2024

Liga II · Round 3Stadionul Ştefan Dobay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Dumbrăviţa35%

×Draw28%

U Craiova 194837%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbrăviţaExpected goals in this matchU Craiova 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.19

Dumbrăviţa

1.15

U Craiova 1948

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 29 away

1.19

creates per match

1.24

1.13

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Dumbrăviţa

1.19

U Craiova 1948

1.24

allows per match

Dumbrăviţa

1.13

U Craiova 1948

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbrăviţa+0.00on par

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbrăviţa ↓

U Craiova 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dumbrăviţa or draw

63%

Dumbrăviţa or U Craiova 1948

72%

Draw or U Craiova 1948

65%

Winning margin

Dumbrăviţa wins by 2+

14%

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dumbrăviţa 1+ goals

68%

Dumbrăviţa 2+ goals

32%

Dumbrăviţa 3+ goals

11%

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

70%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

33%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dumbrăviţa (draw refunded)

49%

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbrăviţa at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 52 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbrăviţa attack 1.19 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.24 + Dumbrăviţa defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dumbrăviţa scores more

35%

level

28%

U Craiova 1948 scores more

37%

U Craiova 1948 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

11'

V. Pop

16'

46'

I. Vasluian← A. Burdeț

46'

I. Anișorac← F. Cibi

46'

A. Martinov← C. Pǎdurariu

59'

M. Ilie← T. Ciubotaru

64'

N. Modan

67'

D. Ghindovean← A. Dragu

71'

R. Ristin← M. Salhi

80'

V. Achim← D. Albu

80'

J. Ibrahim← C. Bălan

83'

N. Sofran← D. Paulevici

86'

R. Negru

90+2'

J. Ibrahim

Dumbrăviţa

U

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: C. Stan

46'▲I. Vasluian←▼A. Burdeț

46'▲I. Anișorac←▼F. Cibi

46'▲A. Martinov←▼C. Pǎdurariu

71'▲R. Ristin←▼M. Salhi

83'▲N. Sofran←▼D. Paulevici

Dumbrăviţa substitutes

VasluianAnișoracMartinovRistinSofran

Manager: M. Croitoru

59'▲M. Ilie←▼T. Ciubotaru

67'▲D. Ghindovean←▼A. Dragu

80'▲V. Achim←▼D. Albu

80'▲J. Ibrahim←▼C. Bălan

U Craiova 1948 substitutes

IlieGhindoveanAchimIbrahim

Liga II: Dumbrăviţa 1–2 U Craiova 1948

U Craiova 1948 beat Dumbrăviţa 2-1 in Liga II on August 17, 2024.

Goals: V. Pop (11'), N. Modan (64'), J. Ibrahim (90+2').

The match was played at Stadionul Ştefan Dobay in Dumbrăvița.

Dumbrăviţa vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga II 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga II: Dumbrăviţa 1–2 U Craiova 1948