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Dumbrăviţa vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti — Liga II 2018

Dumbrăviţa
Dumbrăviţa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
8/24/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 4Stadionul Ştefan Dobay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dumbrăviţa34%
×Draw27%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumbrăviţa
1.18
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dumbrăviţa
1.19
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.46

allows per match

Dumbrăviţa
1.13
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.17

finishing

Dumbrăviţa+0.00on par
CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbrăviţa ↓

CSA Steaua Bucureşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dumbrăviţa or draw
61%
Dumbrăviţa or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
73%
Draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
66%

Winning margin

Dumbrăviţa wins by 2+
14%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dumbrăviţa 1+ goals
69%
Dumbrăviţa 2+ goals
33%
Dumbrăviţa 3+ goals
12%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
72%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
37%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dumbrăviţa (draw refunded)
46%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbrăviţa at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 52 matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbrăviţa attack 1.19 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.46 + Dumbrăviţa defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dumbrăviţa scores more
34%
level
27%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
39%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dumbrăviţa 0–1 CSA Steaua Bucureşti

CSA Steaua Bucureşti beat Dumbrăviţa 1-0 in Liga II on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Ştefan Dobay in Dumbrăvița.