Dumbrăviţa 1–1 ACS Sirineasa: Result & Stats

Dumbrăviţa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

ACS Sirineasa

8/26/2023

Liga II · Round 4Stadionul Emilian Pavel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dumbrăviţa43%

×Draw27%

ACS Sirineasa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbrăviţaExpected goals in this matchACS Sirineasa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.12

Dumbrăviţa

1.38

ACS Sirineasa

1.12

Dumbrăviţa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 84 away

1.19

creates per match

1.11

1.13

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Dumbrăviţa

1.19

ACS Sirineasa

1.11

allows per match

Dumbrăviţa

1.13

ACS Sirineasa

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbrăviţa+0.00on par

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbrăviţa ↓

ACS Sirineasa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dumbrăviţa or draw

70%

Dumbrăviţa or ACS Sirineasa

73%

Draw or ACS Sirineasa

57%

Winning margin

Dumbrăviţa wins by 2+

20%

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dumbrăviţa 1+ goals

75%

Dumbrăviţa 2+ goals

40%

Dumbrăviţa 3+ goals

16%

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals

67%

ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals

31%

ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dumbrăviţa (draw refunded)

58%

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbrăviţa at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 52 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbrăviţa attack 1.19 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Dumbrăviţa defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dumbrăviţa scores more

43%

level

27%

ACS Sirineasa scores more

30%

Dumbrăviţa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dumbrăviţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff