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Dumbarton vs ST Mirren — League Cup 2025

Dumbarton
Dumbarton
FT
0 – 3
ST Mirren
ST Mirren
7/10/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1The C&G Systems Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dumbarton6%
×Draw14%
ST Mirren81%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumbarton
0.50
ST Mirren
2.50

ST Mirren creates 400% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dumbarton
0.20
ST Mirren
2.60

allows per match

Dumbarton
2.40
ST Mirren
0.80

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par
ST Mirren+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

ST Mirren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–113%
0–216%
0–313%
0–48%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw
19%
Dumbarton or ST Mirren
86%
Draw or ST Mirren
94%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+
1%
ST Mirren wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals
39%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
9%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
1%
ST Mirren 1+ goals
92%
ST Mirren 2+ goals
71%
ST Mirren 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)
6%
ST Mirren (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 0.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 0.20 + ST Mirren defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.50

ST Mirren attack 2.60 + Dumbarton defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Dumbarton scores more
6%
level
14%
ST Mirren scores more
81%

ST Mirren at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "ST Mirren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dumbarton vs ST Mirren

ST Mirren beat Dumbarton 3-0 in League Cup on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at The C&G Systems Stadium in Dumbarton.