Dumbarton 3–1 Sauchie Juniors: Result & Stats

Dumbarton

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sauchie Juniors

R. Schiavone 90+3'

J. McKee 90'

C. Pignatiello 24'

Danny Smith 58' (pen)

11/27/2021

FA Cup · 3rd RoundThe C&G Systems Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dumbarton30%

×Draw22%

Sauchie Juniors48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbartonExpected goals in this matchSauchie Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.96

Dumbarton

1.52

Sauchie Juniors

1.96

Sauchie Juniors creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.82

creates per match

2.00

1.91

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Dumbarton

1.82

Sauchie Juniors

2.00

allows per match

Dumbarton

1.91

Sauchie Juniors

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Sauchie Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Sauchie Juniors →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw

52%

Dumbarton or Sauchie Juniors

78%

Draw or Sauchie Juniors

70%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+

14%

Sauchie Juniors wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals

78%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

45%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

20%

Sauchie Juniors 1+ goals

86%

Sauchie Juniors 2+ goals

58%

Sauchie Juniors 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

39%

Sauchie Juniors (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Sauchie Juniors away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 1.82 + Sauchie Juniors defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sauchie Juniors attack 2.00 + Dumbarton defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dumbarton scores more

30%

level

22%

Sauchie Juniors scores more

48%

Sauchie Juniors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sauchie Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Geggan

14'

D. Carroll

24'

C. Pignatiello↳ C. Duthie

42'

S. Davidson

58'

Danny SmithPenalty

62'

W. Greenhorn

62'

S. Carswell← A. Geggan

66'

C. Wilson

77'

R. Schiavone← K. Orsi

80'

M. Finlayson← W. Greenhorn

83'

K. Kelly← S. Collumbine

87'

C. Kelly← R. Crawford

90+2'

R. Schiavone

90'

J. McKee

90+3'

R. Schiavone

Dumbarton

Sauchie

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Farrell

62'▲S. Carswell←▼A. Geggan

77'▲R. Schiavone←▼K. Orsi

Dumbarton substitutes

6Carswell25Schiavone18Paton20Muir24Maley21O'Neil

Manager: F. Duncan

80'▲M. Finlayson←▼W. Greenhorn

83'▲K. Kelly←▼S. Collumbine

87'▲C. Kelly←▼R. Crawford

Sauchie Juniors substitutes

11Finlayson8Kelly19Kelly12Hamilton15McMahon14Craunall20Gilfillan