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Dumbarton vs Raith Rovers — League Cup 2018

Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
7/19/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 7The moreroom.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dumbarton29%
×Draw22%
Raith Rovers48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumbarton
1.43
Raith Rovers
1.89

Raith Rovers creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dumbarton
0.86
Raith Rovers
1.27

allows per match

Dumbarton
2.50
Raith Rovers
2.00

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par
Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Raith Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw
52%
Dumbarton or Raith Rovers
78%
Draw or Raith Rovers
71%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+
13%
Raith Rovers wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals
76%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
42%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
17%
Raith Rovers 1+ goals
85%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
56%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)
38%
Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 0.86 + Raith Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Raith Rovers attack 1.27 + Dumbarton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dumbarton scores more
29%
level
22%
Raith Rovers scores more
48%

Raith Rovers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dumbarton vs Raith Rovers

Dumbarton and Raith Rovers drew 0-0 in League Cup on July 19, 2022.

The match was played at The moreroom.com Stadium in Dumbarton.