Dumbarton 2–1 Queen of the South: Result & Stats

Dumbarton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Queen of the South

T. Wallace 90+5' (pen)

M. Ruth 73'

K. Doherty 83'

11/16/2024

League #183 · Round 14Marbill Coaches Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dumbarton25%

×Draw25%

Queen of the South50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbartonExpected goals in this matchQueen of the South

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.56

Dumbarton

1.01

Queen of the South

1.56

Queen of the South creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

0.60

creates per match

1.52

1.60

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Dumbarton

0.60

Queen of the South

1.52

allows per match

Dumbarton

1.60

Queen of the South

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Queen of the South →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw

50%

Dumbarton or Queen of the South

75%

Draw or Queen of the South

75%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+

9%

Queen of the South wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals

64%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

27%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

8%

Queen of the South 1+ goals

79%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

46%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

33%

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 0.60 + Queen of the South defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.01

Queen of the South attack 1.52 + Dumbarton defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dumbarton scores more

25%

level

25%

Queen of the South scores more

50%

Queen of the South at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

K. McKechnie

46'

L. McIntosh← O. MacIntyre

56'

K. Doherty

64'

M. Douglas

70'

J. Walker

70'

A. Brooks← K. McKechnie

71'

F. Gray

73'

M. Ruth

76'

J. Mumbongo← J. Hilton

78'

T. Wallace← C. McGuffie

81'

82'

83'

90+4'

90+2'

B. Luissint← J. Walker

90+5'

T. WallacePenalty

Dumbarton

Queen

1

5

2

16

35

22

▼

MacIntyre

6

Cochrane

7

▼

McKechnie

4

Lyon

25

⚽

Doherty

23

▼

1

5

24

4

21

▼

McGuffie

12

Pignatiel

17

▼

20

10

7

23

⚽

Ruth

Manager: S. Farrell

76'▲J. Mumbongo←▼J. Hilton

78'▲T. Wallace←▼C. McGuffie

Dumbarton substitutes

9Mumbongo11Wallace14Shields3Young19O'Neil8Wilson31Miller2Lynas6Blair

Manager: P. Murphy

46'▲L. McIntosh←▼O. MacIntyre

70'▲A. Brooks←▼K. McKechnie

90+2'▲B. Luissint←▼J. Walker

Queen of the South substitutes

9McIntosh12Brooks8Luissint20Cowie17O'Donnell14Johnstone