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Dumbarton vs Queen of the South — League Cup 2018

Dumbarton
Dumbarton
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 4
Queen of the South
Queen of the South
7/20/2019League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4The C&G Systems Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dumbarton17%
×Draw20%
Queen of the South64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumbarton
1.03
Queen of the South
2.21

Queen of the South creates 115% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dumbarton
0.86
Queen of the South
1.93

allows per match

Dumbarton
2.50
Queen of the South
1.20

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par
Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Queen of the South →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw
36%
Dumbarton or Queen of the South
80%
Draw or Queen of the South
83%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+
6%
Queen of the South wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals
64%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
28%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
9%
Queen of the South 1+ goals
89%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
65%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)
21%
Queen of the South (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 0.86 + Queen of the South defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Queen of the South attack 1.93 + Dumbarton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dumbarton scores more
17%
level
20%
Queen of the South scores more
64%

Queen of the South at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dumbarton vs Queen of the South

Queen of the South beat Dumbarton 4-1 in League Cup on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at The C&G Systems Stadium in Dumbarton.