Dumbarton 3–3 Kelty Hearts: Result & Stats

Dumbarton

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 3

Kelty Hearts

T. Wallace 45'

A. Arnott 40' (OG)

S. Honeyman 20'

A. Arnott 37' (pen), 25' (pen)

R. Cole 26'

9/23/2025

League #182 · League Round - Group ADumbarton Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dumbarton35%

×Draw19%

Kelty Hearts46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbartonExpected goals in this matchKelty Hearts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.44

Dumbarton

2.13

Kelty Hearts

2.44

Kelty Hearts creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.67

creates per match

2.20

2.67

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Dumbarton

2.67

Kelty Hearts

2.20

allows per match

Dumbarton

2.67

Kelty Hearts

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Kelty Hearts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw

54%

Dumbarton or Kelty Hearts

81%

Draw or Kelty Hearts

65%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+

19%

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals

88%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

63%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

35%

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

91%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

70%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

43%

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Kelty Hearts away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 2.67 + Kelty Hearts defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kelty Hearts attack 2.20 + Dumbarton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dumbarton scores more

35%

level

19%

Kelty Hearts scores more

46%

Kelty Hearts at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kelty Hearts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

S. Honeyman

25'

A. ArnottPenalty

26'

R. Cole↳ C. Johnston

37'

A. ArnottPenalty

40'

A. ArnottOwn goal

45'

T. Wallace↳ S. Honeyman

Dumbarton

Kelty

21

31

14

2

35

8

30

28

9

11

19

19

2

3

20

McArthur

25

5

22

6

10

21

⚽A

Honeyman

11

⚽

Wallace

Manager: Stephen Edward Farrell

Dumbarton substitutes

7Tomlinson15McIntosh18Docherty23Neill4Webster12Gilfedder16McArthur14Livingstone28Kelly

Manager: Thomas O'Ware

Kelty Hearts substitutes

26Brown22Ritchie6Ferguson16Diack10Murray1Miller29Callaghan18Winiarski