Dumbarton 2–1 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

Dumbarton

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Inverness CT

7/18/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 2The moreroom.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dumbarton34%

×Draw23%

Inverness CT43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbartonExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.81

Dumbarton

1.59

Inverness CT

1.81

Inverness CT creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

0.86

creates per match

1.13

2.50

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Dumbarton

0.86

Inverness CT

1.13

allows per match

Dumbarton

2.50

Inverness CT

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Inverness CT →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw

57%

Dumbarton or Inverness CT

77%

Draw or Inverness CT

66%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+

16%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals

80%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

47%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

21%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

84%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

54%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

44%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 0.86 + Inverness CT defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.59

Inverness CT attack 1.13 + Dumbarton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dumbarton scores more

34%

level

23%

Inverness CT scores more

43%

Inverness CT at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff