Dumbarton 0–4 Falkirk: Result & Stats | League Cup

Dumbarton

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Falkirk

11/10/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 6The C&G Systems Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dumbarton21%

×Draw20%

Falkirk59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbartonExpected goals in this matchFalkirk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.25

Dumbarton

1.27

Falkirk

2.25

Falkirk creates 77% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

0.86

creates per match

2.00

2.50

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Dumbarton

0.86

Falkirk

2.00

allows per match

Dumbarton

2.50

Falkirk

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Falkirk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Falkirk →

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw

41%

Dumbarton or Falkirk

80%

Draw or Falkirk

79%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+

Falkirk wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals

72%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

36%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

14%

Falkirk 1+ goals

89%

Falkirk 2+ goals

65%

Falkirk 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

26%

Falkirk (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Falkirk away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 0.86 + Falkirk defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.27

Falkirk attack 2.00 + Dumbarton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dumbarton scores more

21%

level

20%

Falkirk scores more

59%

Falkirk at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff