Dumbarton 2–0 East Kilbride: Result & Stats

Dumbarton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

East Kilbride

M. Durnan 26'

D. Docherty 4'

12/13/2025

League Two · Round 16Dumbarton Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dumbarton31%

×Draw24%

East Kilbride45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbartonExpected goals in this matchEast Kilbride

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.67

Dumbarton

1.36

East Kilbride

1.67

East Kilbride creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.44

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Dumbarton

1.44

East Kilbride

2.00

allows per match

Dumbarton

1.33

East Kilbride

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par

East Kilbride+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

East Kilbride →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw

55%

Dumbarton or East Kilbride

76%

Draw or East Kilbride

69%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+

14%

East Kilbride wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals

74%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

39%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

16%

East Kilbride 1+ goals

81%

East Kilbride 2+ goals

50%

East Kilbride 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

41%

East Kilbride (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

East Kilbride away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 1.44 + East Kilbride defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

East Kilbride attack 2.00 + Dumbarton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dumbarton scores more

31%

level

24%

East Kilbride scores more

45%

East Kilbride at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "East Kilbride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

D. Docherty

26'

M. Durnan↳ D. Docherty

35'

L. Spence

63'

J. Hamilton← J. McGregor

63'

63'

65'

72'

75'

75'

81'

L. Dobbie← C. Elliott

88'

L. McIntosh

88'

S. Fagan

89'

S. Honeyman← L. McIntosh

90+2'

A. Lynas← T. Wallace

Dumbarton

East

1

Owens

5

Fagan

23

▼

McGregor

20

Breen

3

▼

MacKenzie

10

Robertson

6

Leitch

8

▼

Balde

25

Spence

9

▼

14

28

25

5

⚽

4

14

27

6

18

⚽A

Docherty

11

▼

Wallace

15

▼

McIntosh

10

▼

Roy

65'▲A. Gilfedder←▼A. Roy

89'▲S. Honeyman←▼L. McIntosh

90+2'▲A. Lynas←▼T. Wallace

Dumbarton substitutes

19Ecrepont2Lynas3Clark8McEvoy12Gilfedder21Honeyman22Johnston23Neill24Marshall

Manager: Michael Kennedy

63'▲J. Hamilton←▼J. McGregor

63'▲K. Foster←▼J. Balde

63'▲O. See←▼M. MacKenzie

81'▲L. Dobbie←▼C. Elliott

East Kilbride substitutes

21Morrison2Ferguson4Hamilton11Healy12Foster16Dobbie19Mimnaugh27Lyon33See