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Dumbarton vs Clydebank — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dumbarton
Dumbarton
FT
1 – 0
Clydebank
Clydebank
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The C&G Systems Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dumbarton16%
×Draw28%
Clydebank57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumbarton
0.58
Clydebank
1.38

Clydebank creates 138% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dumbarton
0.50
Clydebank
2.00

allows per match

Dumbarton
0.75
Clydebank
0.67

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par
Clydebank+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Clydebank →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–119%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw
43%
Dumbarton or Clydebank
72%
Draw or Clydebank
84%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+
4%
Clydebank wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals
44%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
12%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
2%
Clydebank 1+ goals
75%
Clydebank 2+ goals
40%
Clydebank 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)
22%
Clydebank (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Clydebank away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 0.50 + Clydebank defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Clydebank attack 2.00 + Dumbarton defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dumbarton scores more
16%
level
28%
Clydebank scores more
57%

Clydebank at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Clydebank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Dumbarton 1–0 Clydebank

Dumbarton beat Clydebank 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at The C&G Systems Stadium in Dumbarton.