Dumbarton 0–4 Auchinleck Talbot: Result & Stats

Dumbarton

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Auchinleck Talbot

K. McAvoy 75', 71'

C. Boyd 62', 45'

11/29/2025

FA Cup · Round of 64Dumbarton Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dumbarton22%

×Draw19%

Auchinleck Talbot58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbartonExpected goals in this matchAuchinleck Talbot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.42

Dumbarton

1.45

Auchinleck Talbot

2.42

Auchinleck Talbot creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.82

creates per match

2.92

1.91

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Dumbarton

1.82

Auchinleck Talbot

2.92

allows per match

Dumbarton

1.91

Auchinleck Talbot

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Auchinleck Talbot →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw

42%

Dumbarton or Auchinleck Talbot

81%

Draw or Auchinleck Talbot

78%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+

10%

Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals

77%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

42%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

18%

Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals

91%

Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals

69%

Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

28%

Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Auchinleck Talbot away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 1.82 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.45

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.92 + Dumbarton defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dumbarton scores more

22%

level

19%

Auchinleck Talbot scores more

58%

Auchinleck Talbot at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

45'

51'

54'

57'

C. McEvoy← D. Docherty

57'

A. Roy← S. Tomlinson

57'

C. Johnston← T. Wallace

62'

C. Boyd↳ K. McAvoy

71'

K. McAvoy

75'

K. McAvoy↳ L. Main

76'

T. Falconer← S. Honeyman

77'

A. Nimmo← E. Thomson

81'

R. Langan← L. Main

85'

L. Kazoka← C. Boyd

Dumbarton

Auchinleck

▼

▼

⚽2A

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

57'▲C. McEvoy←▼D. Docherty

57'▲A. Roy←▼S. Tomlinson

57'▲C. Johnston←▼T. Wallace

76'▲T. Falconer←▼S. Honeyman

Dumbarton substitutes

3Clark6Blair8McEvoy10Roy12Gilfedder17Falconer20McArthur22Johnston

77'▲A. Nimmo←▼E. Thomson

81'▲R. Langan←▼L. Main

85'▲L. Kazoka←▼C. Boyd

Auchinleck Talbot substitutes

20Hewitt2Wood3Schoneville7Nimmo15Langan17Abed22Kazoka