Dulwich Hill 1–4 SD Raiders: Result & Stats

Dulwich Hill

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

SD Raiders

8/30/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 30Arlington Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Dulwich Hill33%

×Draw23%

SD Raiders44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dulwich HillExpected goals in this matchSD Raiders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.72

Dulwich Hill

1.47

SD Raiders

1.72

SD Raiders creates 17% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 65 away

1.35

creates per match

1.62

1.82

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Dulwich Hill

1.35

SD Raiders

1.62

allows per match

Dulwich Hill

1.82

SD Raiders

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dulwich Hill+0.00on par

SD Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dulwich Hill ↓

SD Raiders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Dulwich Hill or draw

56%

Dulwich Hill or SD Raiders

77%

Draw or SD Raiders

67%

Winning margin

Dulwich Hill wins by 2+

15%

SD Raiders wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Dulwich Hill 1+ goals

77%

Dulwich Hill 2+ goals

43%

Dulwich Hill 3+ goals

18%

SD Raiders 1+ goals

82%

SD Raiders 2+ goals

51%

SD Raiders 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)

43%

SD Raiders (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dulwich Hill at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

SD Raiders away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.58 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dulwich Hill attack 1.35 + SD Raiders defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

SD Raiders attack 1.62 + Dulwich Hill defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dulwich Hill scores more

33%

level

23%

SD Raiders scores more

44%

SD Raiders at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SD Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff