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Dulwich Hill vs Northern Tigers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Dulwich Hill
Dulwich Hill
FT
2 – 3
Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers
3/16/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 6Arlington Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Dulwich Hill30%
×Draw23%
Northern Tigers46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dulwich Hill
1.39
Northern Tigers
1.77

Northern Tigers creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 77 away

creates per match

Dulwich Hill
1.35
Northern Tigers
1.73

allows per match

Dulwich Hill
1.82
Northern Tigers
1.42

finishing

Dulwich Hill+0.00on par
Northern Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dulwich Hill ↓

Northern Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dulwich Hill or draw
54%
Dulwich Hill or Northern Tigers
77%
Draw or Northern Tigers
70%

Winning margin

Dulwich Hill wins by 2+
13%
Northern Tigers wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dulwich Hill 1+ goals
75%
Dulwich Hill 2+ goals
40%
Dulwich Hill 3+ goals
16%
Northern Tigers 1+ goals
83%
Northern Tigers 2+ goals
53%
Northern Tigers 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)
40%
Northern Tigers (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dulwich Hill at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

Northern Tigers away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dulwich Hill attack 1.35 + Northern Tigers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Northern Tigers attack 1.73 + Dulwich Hill defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dulwich Hill scores more
30%
level
23%
Northern Tigers scores more
46%

Northern Tigers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Northern Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dulwich Hill vs Northern Tigers

Northern Tigers beat Dulwich Hill 3-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Arlington Oval in Dulwich Hill.